Thursday, December 20, 2018

Syria; the Turkish angle

Turkey has said it's going to attack the Kurds in Syria.  That's a problem for the US because we support the Kurds.

Which puts Trump in a difficult situation.  He can keep the US troops there and risk a conflict with Turkey which is already heading down the path of Islamic radicalization or he can pull our troops out of Syria.

I personally think he should keep the troops there and make it clear to Turkey that the price of attacking Americans is far too high for them to go through with their plans. But if the Turks still attack that could mire us in another war in the Middle East which the Democrats would condemn him for and which the American people wouldn't support.

If Trump has intelligence that says that the Turks won't listen to any warning and will attack no matter what--which isn't unlikely given the Islamist dictator who is running Turkey would love an external war to unite the country behind him--withdrawing troops might be the only way to avoid a long and costly war in the Middle East.

It's also possible that Trump is simply saying that there is no reason for Americans to die fighting in the Middle East now that ISIS no longer has large safe training areas from which to mount attacks on the US.

Nearly two decades of fighting in the Middle East has worn down Americans commitment to spending our blood and wealth dealing with Islamic radicals overseas.  This is nothing new. WWII lasted, for the US, around 4 years and by the end the American people were tired of it and wanted out.  Democracies are less capable of waging long wars because unless the average citizen sees a direct benefit to themselves from the war--like not being overrun by communists--they're unlikely to support a seemingly endless conflict.  Whereas in totalitarian regimes any lack of support for a war results in death or imprisonment.

If Trump knows that the Turks are going to attack no matter what his withdrawing US troops may be the right decision.

If withdrawing troops is just being done because that's what Trump thinks the people want that too is not evil; sometimes the foreign policy hawks forget that in America the people have the final say.

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