Unverified computer models aren't science: COVID19 in Minnesota edition

There's an ancient computer saying dating back to the last millennia which says "Garbage In Garbage Out"(GIGO).

The point is that a computer program is only as good as the data that goes into it.  That can be extended by noting that a computer simulation is only as good as the algorithms it uses.

The point is that someone who shows you a computer model isn't doing science.  Only if the model is validated against real data, the model predicts something that actual happens, does the model become science.

When Democrats have invoked "science" to justify imprisoning honest Americans while letting dishonest ones out of prison they've generally been invoking unverified claims.

Take the state of Minnesota, the den of systemic racism which has been run by Democrats for ages where George Floyd died. It used a computer model created a couple of graduate students over a weekend.

The model turned out to be totally wrong.  Even after 3 iterations forced by the huge errors in the models predictions the last version's predictions are completely wrong.

For example the model produced that with shelter in place in effect the peak ICU use would be 3,397 beds on June 29th.  The actual number was 140.

Here's a plot of the predicted vs actual ICU usage.

This is very important because the whole justification for locking Americans up was to flatten the hospitalization curve so that we didn't run out of beds for people who were sick with the China virus.

No one then, and no on responsible now, thinks we can hide from the virus.  That's not how disease works. Even Bill Maher gets that.

While we need to protect the elderly since they are more vulnerable there is no reason to force the vast majority of healthy Americans out of work based on computer models that are the antithesis of science.

An initial over reaction is understandable; better safe than sorry. But it's clear that it's not science but politics that motivates Democrat governors to keep honest citizens locked up, unless of course they're rioting or protesting in support of the Democrat's big lie that anyone other than Democrat politicians are racist in America.