Wednesday, July 8, 2020

Trump's right: 99% of people who get Covid19 are fine

Based on studies done to date a conservative estimate is that about 5% of Americans have had the China virus.

A huge fraction of them never had any symptoms. That's why early estimates of how lethal coronavirus is were way too high.

A Stanford professor is saying the following:

“The death rate in a given country depends a lot on the age-structure, who are the people infected, and how they are managed,” Ioannidis said. “For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially…”

Given that those above 70 account for only 9% of the US population they'd have to have a mortality rate of more than 100% to drive the overall mortality rate for the US to 5%.

So here are the numbers that show that Trump is right when he says that 99% of people who get the China virus don't die:

US population: 330,000,000

%who've had China virus:  5.0%

Total Americans who've had the virus: 330,000,000 * 0.05 = 16,500,000

# of Americans who have died from the virus: 130,000 (yes  I know this is an overestimate)

Fraction of Americans who have had COVID19 who have died: 130,000/16,500,000 = 0.008 = 0.8%

Fraction of Americans who haven't died from the China virus: 100% - 0.8% = 99.2%

Because Democrats know that their only chance of winning in November is to blame Trump for a virus that was spread due to actions by the Chinese government and to keep Americans unemployed and scared they constantly lie about how bad the virus is.

Clearly if you're over 45 it's worse than the common flu but for younger people it's not.

That's why Democrats constantly lie about how serious the disease is.

Clearly they're lying because when they thought the George Floyd protests would help them they said that social distancing wasn't required.

So either Democrats hate Americans and thought it was fine for us to die in droves so that Democrats could benefit from George Floyd's death or they are lying to us about the need for social distancing for all Americans.

The sane non-political response to the China virus is to open up society but provide protection--special shopping hours etc--for people at risk.

But Democrats don't care about you or society. All that matters to them is power which they think they'll get if they put all Americans into prison until Biden is elected after which you'll see that they completely change their position on social distancing.

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