Saturday, June 29, 2019

California Democrats create a new tax on Americans to buy the votes of illegals.

California Democrats are planning to provide free medical coverage to illegals between the ages of 19 and 25 by enrolling them in Medi-Cal.  The Democrats are claiming that will only cost $98,000,000 a year.  This is part of then latest California budget.

Of course given that California is between $285 billion and $1 trillion in debt due to underfunded pension plans for California government employees even the Democrats agree that they have to raise taxes to come up with that $98 million.

They plan to tax American citizens who are too poor, or too healthy, to buy their own insurance to pay for the health care for illegals. That's right they're going to raise the Obamacare mandate from the dead, the Republicans having gotten rid of it, and impose it on Californians; of course since illegals don't pay state taxes, unless they've stolen someone's identity, they won't be contributing.

But that's the least of the problems with this Democrat proposal.

It turns out the definition of poor in the bill would mean that a family of four that made $150,000 a year could still get some level of benefits from this new plan.  Given that the poverty level in California, adjusted for local conditions like the high cost of housing is $30,00 a year that means that a lot of illegals who aren't poor will be getting benefits.

But the biggest problem with this new plan is that either its cost is dramatically underestimated or it's proof that illegals are stealing good high paying jobs from Americans.

Since there are around 2.4 million illegals in California and roughly 14% of illegals are in the 19 to 25 year age range there are roughly 332,190 illegals who are potentially eligible for this new program.

If we assume that the 90,000 figure is right then that means that 72.9% of illegals ages 19 to 25 earn enough to be above the poverty line;$30 thousand a year. That means that only 27% of illegals are living in poverty. If that's true then the majority of illegals aren't taking low paying jobs that Americans won't take but instead are stealing high paying jobs from Americans.

When we look at how earnings change by age the problem is even worse.  The average salary for Americans age 20-24 is $29 thousand a year. That rises to $42 thousand a year for American workers aged 25-34 and $51 thousand a year for workers ages 35 to 44.  Hence the average salary of illegals, if the Democrats estimates are right, are very close to the pay for citizens given that the poverty level in CA is $30 thousand a year.   

If the Democrat estimates are correct that means that a significant fraction of illegals aren't taking low paying, back breaking jobs. Instead those illegals are taking the same types of jobs, in terms of pay, as American citizens.

However given that the average poverty rate of illegals in California is more like 80% the problem probably isn't that illegals are stealing high paying jobs from Americans, they're just driving down wages and keeping poor Americans from getting jobs, but that the cost of this program will be much higher than the Democrats are predicting.

Using the Democrats numbers it will cost around $1100 a year for each illegal who benefits from the program.  If we assume that 80% of young illegals are poor, rather than the 27% that the Democrats assume, the total number of illegals who will benefit from this program will be 265,752 instead of 90,000.

If that figure is true the program will cost California citizens $290 million a year not the $98 million dollars a year that the Democrats are projecting.

Given that Democrats have a very long history of underestimating the cost of welfare programs and the fact that it's highly unlikely that illegals who lack English skills and a decent education are stealing high paying jobs odds are that if passed this new plan will cost Californians a lot more money than the Democrats are claiming it will.

What's interesting is that by supporting this plan Democrats are saying that they're willing to tax American citizens to pay for the expenses of illegals.

Of course by offering in state tuition and free public schooling to illegals California Democrats have clearly said that they believe that illegals should benefit from the hard work of Americans. What's unique about this case is that Democrats are saying that they will create a new tax that only applies to American citizens to pay for this new benefit for illegals.

Historically Democrats have just funded their welfare for illegals programs out of the general revenue so actually creating a new tax the only purpose of which is to benefit illegals is a new achievement by Democrats.

Inquiring minds might be asking why are Democrats so eager to help illegals? After all Democrats have historically only used taxpayer money to buy votes.

The answer is that in California it's highly likely that Democrats believe that illegals are voting Democrat.  Why else would the Democrats have made it easy for illegals to register to vote?

Currently illegals in California can get a drivers license and when they do so they're asked if they want to register to vote. The process is based entirely on the honor system; if an illegal says that they are a citizen they will be registered to vote; they are not required to provide any proof of citizenship.

Democrats want us to believe that people who had no problem breaking our immigration laws to improve their financial situation would never ever contemplate breaking our election laws to vote for politicians who say they will improve the economic situation of illegals.

As with most current Democrat efforts in California this new plan will hurt working Californians, not hurt the rich who won't have to pay the new tax,  and help illegals which tells us who the Democrats really care about.
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