Thursday, April 2, 2020

Don't panic: Corona virus vis a vis the flu

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/the-wuhan-virus-where-we-are-now.php
This plot shows us that as of today coronavirus is not a new Spanish Flu or Black plague.

Even if the worst predictions in the US come true and 240K Americans die it'll be the equivalent of 4 bad flu seasons and the odds of you living through it will be 1,375 to 1.

That doesn't mean that it's worthwhile to really hurt the economy and raise the national debt a lot in order to keep the number of deaths low.

It doesn't mean that we shouldn't take draconian steps, like forcing GM to produce ventilators, in order to deal with the virus.

But it does mean that we shouldn't panic.  That civilization isn't ending. That we're facing a zombie apocalypse.

Sadly corona virus will turn out to be worse than the flu.  But it won't be in the same league as the Spanish flu or the Black Plague.  The Spanish Flu, adjusted for the growth in US population, killed the equivalent of 1.8 million Americans. The Black Plague killed between 30 and 60% of the population of Europe.

During the Spanish Flu America didn't skip a beat; WWI continued on schedule.

Now the Black Plague did cause massive social disruption. But that took a death rate roughly 857 times higher than the worst case scenario for what the Chinese virus will have.

So don't panic. Don't hoard.  Don't buy gold and bury it in your backyard.

Do socially distance. Do shelter in place. Do stay informed.

Most importantly pray to God that this cross be lifted and that we have the strength to do his will.

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