Saturday, May 16, 2020

The left has a problem with math: counting COVID19 deaths edtion

Colorado said that 1,000 people had died there due to the China virus. But now they're saying that only 878 people died because of coronavirus.

That's a 14% drop.

Now Colorado is saying that 1,150 people who died had the China virus and of those 878 died from the virus.

Previously cases like the man who died from alcohol poisoning while infected was counted as a China virus death.

There has been a lot of talk about the problem of counting how many people are dying from COVID19.

For example the main victims of the China virus are the elderly many of whom die of other causes each year.  If an 85 year old gets a mild case of the virus, remember 70% of people who get the virus show no symptoms, and then dies of a heart attack he'd currently counted as having died from the China virus.

The reason that it's important to determine how many people are actually dying from the virus and not other causes is that it's what driving the entire shut down society movement.

Clearly if a significant fraction of people who are being counted as dying from the China virus would have died at the same time without having the China virus-- from heart attacks. suicide, etc-- then the case for destroying the economy is drastically weakened.

As Bill Maher, of all people, has pointed out the reality is that we can't hide from a virus.  While the China virus is worse than the flu, in terms of mortality, it's well within the range of deaths that we as a society tolerate on a regular basis.

A bad flu season can kill 100,000 people for example.  We lose 40,000 people each and every year to car accidents--remember that once enough people have caught the China virus we'll develop herd immunity and the death tolls in later years will be drastically lower.

This doesn't mean we should abandon social distancing or that people at risk, those over 60 and/or who have serious health conditions, shouldn't shelter in place but it does mean that there is no reason to keep society shutdown knowing that as many as 150,000 extra people will die deaths of despair, suicide/drug overdose, if we don't open up society.

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