Sunday, May 10, 2020

Pandemics then and now: 100,000 Americans died of the Avian Flu in 1968 and we didn't shut down

In 1968 the US was hit with the Hong Kong flu, originating in China, and around 100,000 Americans died, about 1 million died worldwide.

If we scale that by the American population in 1968, 205 million, and the today, 330 million, that's the equivalent of 160,000 people dying today.

I lived through that and I don't even recall noticing it.

No one panicked.  No stores were closed and the economy wasn't shut down.

Now that doesn't mean that social distancing and the lockdown in places like New York or other big cities or large urban areas was wrong. But it does mean that the Democrats who are demanding that we shut down the economy forever are wrong.

The simple reality is that shutting down the economy will result in deaths of despair.  One study estimates that if we take a long time to recover, which is what the Democrats appear to want, 150,000 Americans could die from suicide, addiction related problems, etc.

While Democrat politicians act as though we can stop all deaths, which no doctor says is the case, and that shutting down the economy has no adverse impact, they think that because government workers are still getting paid since they're all "essential", but the reality is that we need to balance the adverse impacts of the China virus and economic shutdown.

Fortunately the average age of those who die from COVID19 is above 70.  That's not good because old people dying isn't bad but because it's far easier for society to help those vulnerable people stay safe than it is for society to shut down completely.

We need to avoid huge errors like Cuomo's administration forcing nursing homes to take people who had coronavirus.

But we can drastically relax the restrictions on young, less than 60 years old, and healthy people so that America can get back to work and we can avoid those deaths of despair.

No comments: