Tuesday, April 21, 2020

More good pandemic news; 4.1% of the people in LA have already had it

By looking for antibodies to the China virus, rather than the virus itself doctors can tell if someone has already had the virus at some point in the past.

New studies which use that approach are finding that many more people have had the virus than we previously thought.  Studies have shown that between a few percent and 30% of the population has already dealt with the virus and lived to talk about it.

The latests study is from LA county where doctors estimate that 4.1% of the population has been infected.

Oddly that's great news.  Since the number of deaths hasn't changed it means that the death rate of COVID19 is much much lower than we thought; down to numbers close to that of a bad flu season.

That doesn't mean that the virus isn't a threat but it does mean it's not a huge threat like the Black Plague or the Spanish Flu.

The bad news is that herd immunity needs about 80% of the population to be infected.

However given the much lower lethality of the virus for people under 60 and those without preexisting conditions this means that ending the shelter in place for low risk populations, ie the vast majority of Americans, won't result in a huge number of deaths.

This is showing us that Trump's way forward will probably correctly balance deaths due to economic privation and isolation with deaths from the China virus thereby minimizing the number of Americans who die.

The Democrats desire to keep everyone locked up forever to crash the economy so that they can win in November on the other hand could easily lead to more deaths, according to previous data on deaths due to economic hardship, than is necessary.

Democrat politicians are literally willing to kill you to get more power.


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