Saturday, September 7, 2019

New research shows that climate models are all wrong; no pending apocalypse

A new paper shows that climate models are inaccurate because they over estimate the impact of CO2 on warming.

The first point the paper makes is that in the context of the overall heat balance of the planet CO2 is a tiny effect.  Out of 100 units of heat being sent back to the earth from the atmosphere CO2 contribute 0.5.  Yeah that's right 1/2 of a %.  The day to day variations in the atmospheric value is around a factor of 4 higher than the CO2 impact.

Back in 1994 the papers authors had shown that the warming rate was 0.095 deg C per decade; about a fourth of what the climate alarmists were predicting.  In this paper they update their analysis using a much longer, 37.5 years set of data and show that their 1994 value was correct.

Even more importantly they show that all the climate models, except one Russian one that doesn't predict dangerous warming by 2100, are wrong because they disagree significantly with the actual measured temperatures.

It's important to note that the way science works people propose a theory and test that theory against actual measurements. If the theory agrees with measurements we say that that validates the theory but if the theory doesn't agree with the data then the theory has been shown to be incorrect.

Clearly the climate models aren't correctly predicting the temperature change over time which means that the models are wrong.  If they ca't correctly model the 2017 temperature they can't be trusted to predict the temperature in 2100.

The reality is that the models consistently over predict the amount of warming; something that's essential for the Democrats scare campaign.

Why do scientists not admit that the models are wrong?  There are multiple reasons. Admitting that one's theory is wrong tends to reduce one's chance of getting funding.  Admitting that one's theory doesn't justify massive changes to the US economy and the elimination of cows reduces one's chances of getting funding.  Admitting that one's theory doesn't support scientists personal leftist agenda means that scientists lose power.

The reality is simple scientists are human too. They want to be famous and get lots of funding as well as being able to make the US conform to their ideology.  They get all of that by declaring that we're all about to die because that empowers Democrats to gain control of America.

We need to monitor the climate and accept the fact that as we're exiting a little ice age the oceans are rising and the Earth's temperature is slowly increasing. But we don't need to resort to cannibalism --seriously suggested by some on the left-- or the mass murder of cows to keep America safe.

No comments: