Monday, March 9, 2020

It's the oil not the virus that's causing todays problem

The market is having big problems today because oil is too cheap.

While that sounds odd there's actually logic behind it.

US fossil fuel production has exploded through the use of fracking but to be cost effective oil has to have a minimum price which is above what we're seeing these days.

The reason prices are low is that not only is demand down, with less traveling due to the WuHu flu but Saudi Arabia has decided to drive down oil prices by dramatically increasing production.

Ostensibly that's to punish Russia and Iran, both of whom count on oil revenues to fund their imperialism, but it's possible that the US is a target too.

In any case the problem is that if oil gets too cheap many US companies that are producing fossil fuels will go bankrupt.

That's what's got the market in a tizzy.

The good news is that it's pretty clear that the WuHu flu isn't going to be a pandemic this season.  Already the number of new cases per day is down by a factor of 20 in China.  A vaccine is ready to be tested as well.

Once folks realize that unless they're very old, above 80, or have a serious health problem the odds of dying are tiny then life will return to normal and we'll live with the WuHu flu just like we live with the regular flu.

Similarly Saudi can only drive down the price of oil so much without hurting itself.

Back in the day when Democrats weren't all fascists who will inflict any level of suffering on Americans in order to get power FDR told us that all we have to fear is fear itself.

But today while Trump is the voice of reason Democrats and the #FakeNews media are rooting for lots of Americans to die and for a recession so that they're chances of winning in November are increased.

It won't be long before the Democrats and the #FakeNews media are blaming Trump for what the Saudi's are doing.

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