Sunday, March 29, 2020

Economic recovery will be quick so don't panic

While the lives of the elderly are just as valuable from a moral/spiritual perspective of the lives of younger people the reality is that their economic value is very different.

If everyone over 75 died this instant other than a sharp drop in the need for nursing home workers the economy would be unaffected.  However if say all 30 year olds died the economy would be massively impacted because it's the younger people who are out there actually doing the work that keeps America going.

Now of course there are exceptions, such as older folk who run their own businesses, but the generalization is in fact correct.

Given that coronavirus is mainly killing the elderly, though keep in mind that even the oldest patients are much more likely to live than die from COVID19, once we drop the stay home regulations the economy will come roaring back since the work force and the demand for products and services will return.

The purpose of the stimulus bill is to help businesses weather the temporary loss of income so that they can start back up once people are let free.  This is being done by elevating demand--giving folks who are out of work more money--and by offering loans to companies.

What we do have to fear is not the virus, at the worst the chances of an average American dying are 1 in 100, but allowing our fear to disrupt the economy more than is necessary so that we end up in a long term recession which itself will lead to deaths.

With new treatments for coronavirus being found rapidly the biggest thing to remember is that there is no reason to panic.

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